The Fantasy Baseball Anti-Waiver Wire (Week 7)
Talking about the guys you should add is fun, but pinpointing the guys you shouldn’t is equally as important
If you’ve been around Fake Baseball for a while, you know one of the articles I put out consistently is the waiver wire. I did it for two seasons over at FantasyPros and continued it once I started up Fake Baseball in December. It is by far my favorite article to research and write. One thing that often gets overlooked in these articles, though, is the amount of research that also has to go into the guys that I don’t want to recommend to you guys. I’m very picky with who makes the cut, and I have a million reasons why a player shouldn’t.
While knowing exactly who to pick up may ultimately be the most important bit of information you can get, knowing who to avoid is also incredibly important. The thing is, not everyone I suggest will always be available in your leagues. There are going to be times when you need a specific position, and the player I’ve suggested for said position is taken, and you’re stuck deciding on your own. Knowing whom to avoid in those instances becomes crucial.
There are many different reasons to avoid players. Whether it be playing time issues, batted ball data, upcoming matchups, or any number of other reasons. Even if you decide to pick up these players anyway, it’s important to at least have some input into why they may not be the best choice. So with all of that being said, let’s get into it.
Noelvi Marte - Cincinnati Reds
He was on my waiver wire list a couple of weeks ago, and now here I am letting you know that adding him is no longer ideal. The issue with Noelvi is that so much of his perceived value comes from one big game. Now, granted, that big game was one in which he went 5/7 with two doubles, a grand slam, and seven RBI. Nobody seems to account for the fact that both the grand slam and the second double came against Jorge Mateo and Gary Sanchez. Not actual pitching.
When you dive more into Marte’s numbers, you find too many red flags. Much of his batted ball data is actually worse than what we saw in 2024, where he hit just four home runs in 66 games. His barrel rate (5.4%), hard hit rate (32.1%), line drive rate (14.3%), and sweet-spot rate (23.3%) are all not only career lows, but also well below league average. He’s also got a wOBA almost 60 points higher than his xwOBA. If he had enough at-bats to be a qualified hitter, that would be just behind Matt Mervis for the ninth-worst in all of baseball.
I understand the appeal of adding Marte. He’s eligible at multiple positions, plays in what is seemingly a fun lineup, and has one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. The reality of the situation is that he’s the benefactor of the “small sample size” ideology, where one game has impacted his value enough to become a popular waiver wire addition. Let someone else use a roster spot on Marte while you reap the benefits of someone who can produce at a much higher level going forward.
Evan Carter - Texas Rangers
One of the hotter names on the “is he worth a speculative add” list is Evan Carter. Just two seasons removed from being one of the most electric young players in the big leagues, Carter now finds himself trying to pick up the pieces of his career. Unfortunately, I’m not so sure he’s going to be able to do that quite yet. Especially playing in this current iteration of the Rangers lineup.
We’ve all seen what the top end of Carter’s production looks like. He put together an 18/29 season in 2023 in just 131 games before going on a tear in the playoffs. Since then, though, the regression monster (shoutout Mike Kurland) has come calling. After a .188/.272/.361 45 games in 2024, he’s looked human once again in 2025. He’s hitting just .221 with a .749 OPS in 90 Triple-A at-bats.
Now, before you hit me with the “he played well in his last few weeks, he’s back”, keep in mind none of his batted ball metrics for this season back up those “he’s back” claims. He has a contact rate of just 71.3%, a swinging strike rate of almost 12%, and a 90th percentile EV of just 102.3 MPH. That’s in the 32nd percentile.
It’s difficult to be overly excited about a call-up whose value is reliant on their home run/stolen base ability when said player can hardly hit the ball hard enough to get said home runs. And he’s still struggling against everything that’s not a fastball, whiffing 46% of the time. I understand people in deep leagues are likely still taking the chance on him, but he’s only going to disappoint if his bat-to-ball skills do not drastically improve.
James Outman - Los Angeles Dodgers
This is going to likely sound pretty similar to the Evan Carter discussion, but the long and short of it is that Outman still is exactly who we thought he was. He had his fun in 2023. We loved it. Coming out of nowhere to put up a 23/16 team in that strong Dodgers lineup will always be one of the coolest seasons from an unexpected rookie. Now, with Teoscar Hernandez going down for what seems like an extended period of time, Outman gets the call, and fantasy managers are going to scramble to add him.
Please don’t.
One of the biggest holes in Outman’s game is the combination of massive swing and miss issues with terrible contact. The QUALITY of contact has never been in question, but that becomes a moot point when you can’t hit the ball in the first place. He’s done nothing in his first 146 plate appearances of 2025 to show anything has changed.
36.3% K rate
67.3% overall contact rate
16.6% swinging strike rate
40% whiff rate against secondaries
He’s likely going to get his fair share of at-bats, at least in the short term, so he’s going to become a very popular waiver wire addition once everyone starts realizing he’s been recalled. Let someone else use their FAAB budget and waiver wire priority on him while you prioritize players who can give you actual, helpful production in both the short and long term.
Lance McCullers Jr - Houston Astros
The cat-and-mouse game McCullers played with the Astros’ rotation these last few years should be studied. The amount of “He’s coming back” announcements, followed not long after by “He had a setback” announcements, was starting to mirror Brett Favre's retirement announcements. We all knew the stuff was nasty and if he would make it back, that he’d shine, but the problem was we had no clue exactly how long that was going to take. Well, now, he’s back, and he’s been one of the more popular pitchers on the waiver wire this last week or so.
The issue with McCullers isn’t skill, it’s what life, after all the surgeries, is truly going to look like for him. In his first start, he got the benefit of facing a White Sox team that’s not necessarily lighting the world on fire. Even so, he only managed to make it through 3.2 innings. This is what will end up being the thing that holds McCullers back. Command can be one of the hardest things to regain after dealing with major arm issues, and poor command means more walks. More walks mean more pitches thrown. So on and so on.
The Astros DID let him throw 87 pitches, which is more than I was expecting, but also probably on the high side of what they’ll let him go for the foreseeable future. And for what it’s worth, he was giving up a surprising amount of contact and not getting many hitters to chase. Both of which are out of the norm for McCullers, but not out of the norm for someone in his position.
When July hits, maybe things have changed for the better and he’s putting some great starts together, but for now, I’m not sure he has many starts where he even pitches enough innings to qualify for a win. He’s the epitome of the right person, but the wrong time.
