The Best Trade Targets In Fantasy Baseball (Pitchers)
Using analytics, I’ve pinpointed four of the best pitchers to target in your fantasy baseball leagues for immediate success
When it comes to pitching, there are a million and one different indicators you can use to define success. Some of them matter a lot less than you think (wins), and some of them matter way more (SIERA). Knowing exactly what to focus on, especially with early-season small sample sizes, is crucial.
When doing some research this weekend, beer in hand around a campfire of course, I came across four pitchers that stood out to me. Two guys who are beloved by the fantasy baseball world, and two guys that surprised me. This is based on pitchers who’ve made at least three starts.
When doing said research, I tried to hone in on four specific stats. Ones that can be used to easily quantify success, while also still being in the sustainable range. Those four data points are:
K-BB% above 20%
SIERA Under 3.00
LOB% between 74% and 86%
Hard Hit Rate Under 38%
When evaluating pitching, K-BB% is one of the best analytics you can use. It does a great job of indicating both past and future success. 17% is typically a number you love to see, but narrowing it down to guys sitting 20% or higher helps focus on just the elite ones.
SIERA is what we all wished ERA could be. It takes into account only things that can be controlled by the pitcher. Like strikeouts and all different types of batted ball events. It’s meant to show just how good the pitcher himself is performing regardless of everything else that happens. A SIERA below 3.00 indicates the guy has been pitching his ass off.
Left on base rate is one I kept in the very specific 74% - 86% range for one main reason…this is the most realistic range for a good pitcher over the course of a full season. When evaluating pitching it’s important to check on left on base rate, a higher LOB number can indicate a pitcher who’s getting very lucky and due for regression. A lower one can potentially indicate someone who’s due for a bump in production over time.
The hard-hit rate under 38% should be a bit self-explanatory. Less hard contact traditionally means fewer hits and fewer runs given up. The best pitchers succeed at giving up less hard contact. The 38% and below number is the sustainable realm you hope to see the best pitchers at over the course of a season. So using this as a reference point right now once again helps weed out the good from the meh.
So who are the pitchers who fit into this data range, you may be asking? Let’s get into it.
Cole Ragans - Kansas City Royals
32.3% K-BB Rate
1.96 SIERA
74.1% LOB Rate
37% Hard Hit Rate
Don’t worry, I know you don’t need me to tell you that Cole Ragans is good or should be someone you’re targeting. He’s here because he’s part of the four players meeting the criteria. I figured it’s important to highlight him so you can be aware not only of how well he’s playing but also because it shows you just how good every else on this list has been.
New arm slot, new pitch mix usage, new pitch movement, improved Cole Ragans. Any questions?
Max Fried - New York Yankees
21.9% K-BB Rate
2.96 SIERA
77.2% LOB Rate
34.3% Hard Hit Rate
Next up on the list of dudes who absolutely shove is the Yankees’ shiny new starting pitcher toy. Admittedly, when he first became a New York Yankee I was incredibly skeptical. It’s hard to get overly excited about any pitcher who calls that tiny stadium home. And honestly after his first start of the season, I was feeling pretty right. I can now admit that I couldn't have been any farther from correct.
Through his first three starts of the season, Fried had allowed just one total barreled ball. One. The easiest way to avoid hard contact is to not allow barrels and Fried seems to have found a way. In his fourth start, he did give up four barreled balls which isn’t ideal, but he still found a way to have a very successful outing. Fried figured out the formula. An updated pitch mix has him looking like a potential top-10 starter in baseball.
According to
it seems Fried is now throwing two different types of four seam fastballs. His new four seam with less glove side movement is a big reason why his fastball run value is already in the 97th percentile in baseball. Combine that with the rise in sinker and sweeper usage and you get a version of Max Fried who’s 26.7% strikeout rate and 2.96 SIERA are the best of his career.Taj Bradley - Tampa Bay Rays
22.1% K-BB Rate
3.05 SIERA (I’m making an exception)
74.1% LOB
35% Hard Hit Rate
Is he under that 3.00 SIERA mark? No. But Taj Bradley was a player I highlighted in the preseason as someone in line for a big year and he’s been performing right in line with what I expected. So him being over by the hairs on his chinny-chin-chin isn’t going to stop me from adding him to the list.
My big takeaway from Bradley’s 2024 season was that his splitter failed him for one singular month which derailed everything. Outside of that, Bradley had a great 2024 season but unless you truly dug deeper, it was pretty easy to forget. That same splitter is what has now taken his game to the next level in 2025.
Previously, it was his second most used pitch but was used drastically more against left-handers (405 pitches) than right-handers (211 pitches). This season it’s become a pitch rated “E for Everyone” throwing it 26 times against lefties and 24 times against righties. He’s upped the velo on it by 1.2 MPH and it now dances like Michael Jackson in the thriller video. It’s gone from 5.5” of vertical break and 10.7” of arm side run in 2024, to 7.6” of vertical break and 13” of arm side run in 2025. He’s seen similar changes in movement profile across the board.
(Taj Bradley 2024 vs 2025 Pitch Movement courtesy of Pitcher List)
With his new movement profiles and a slight change to his pitch usage have opponents hitting just .197 off Bradley. He’s always had the ability to be a dominant pitcher, it just came down to whether he could stay consistent enough throughout the season to see that happen. We may only be three starts in so far, but it’s already seeming like he’s putting together a gem of a season and it’s wise to get in now before the hype train fully leaves the station.
Kris Bubic - Kansas City Royals
21.1% K-BB Rate
2.92 SIERA
86% LOB
37.5% Hard Hit Rate
So when I initially did all my research for this article, it was pre-Bubic facing the Yankees. He faced them while I was writing this and the results weren’t spectacular and would technically take him off the list, but I’ve come too far to turn back now. If I can forgive Bradley for being .05 over on SIERA then I can also forgive Bubic for the results of a windy night game in tiny Yankees Stadium with 16 MPH winds blowing out to the short porch in right field.
Since being turned back into a starter, Bubic has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He pounds the zone (56.6% in zone rate), especially with the first pitch (65.8% first-pitch strike), and dares hitters to hit it. Something many pitchers struggle with. And while he isn’t the most overpowering pitcher opposing hitters will ever face, much of what he does is with incredible finesse. Take his fastball for example.
His four-seam is a pitch that he not only throws the most often, it’s also maybe his most effective. It lives up and away in the zone to righties, while also living on the inside edge to lefties and eating them alive. His 16% swinging strike rate on his four-seam is the 18th best in baseball and prior to the Yankees game it limited hard contact to just 20.7% of the time. All of this despite averaging just 92.2 MPH, but an 18.1” IVB on a fastball that lives up in the zone will do that.
Outside of his fastball, he’s dropped his sweeper usage by almost 20% and replaced those with a slider that’s been ok. He’s also upped his changeup usage slightly and made it his second most utilized weapon. Honestly, it may be his pride and joy the way he seems to love force-feeding it to right-handed hitters. And for good reason. Coming into today it had a .174 xBA, .198 xSLG, and 36.4% whiff rate. All it seemed to do was make hitters look silly and when a pitcher can throw a disgusting fastball and pair it will an “I’m going to make you look dumb” pitch, it’s a wrap for most hitters.
Bubic is a guy who’s not as widely rostered as the others on this list, and in leagues where he is the owners may have soured a bit on him after that Yankees start. As of right now, it seems like it’s best to treat that start as an outlier rather than as his downfall. Capitalize on the mediocre start and try and pick up a pitcher who most people will be kicking themselves for not rostering the more the season goes on.
