The Best Late Round Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets (Hitters)
Y'all want some late round targets, y’all get some late round targets
Awhile back, closer to when my substack got started, I did two articles. One covered my favorite sleepers on the hitting side, and one covered the pitching side. Truthfully I absolutely love writing those types of articles. When you create content in the baseball world, whether it be writing, podcasting, videos, you are constantly deep diving into analytics and player profiles and finding guys you like. From that comes an endless amount of players I can consider sleepers.
Not all of those sleepers make the list to be added to specific articles. Some of them get grouped together and set aside for me to do more research and make sure I feel a specific way about them. Those tend to be the guys going way later in drafts, pick 300+ most of the time. That’s where articles like this come from. This group of hitters are the guys I wasn’t sure about initially, but am now all in on late in drafts.
Whether you’re in super deep 30 round, 15 team drafts, or just like taking flyers on guys late in your own draft that others may not have on their radar, I hope you find at least one name here that excites you as much as it excites me.
(Friendly reminder that all articles are available two days early to paid subscribers! After 2 days they unlock for all subscribers. To get full articles 2 days early sign up for as little as $5/month or $50/year!)
Luke Raley - 1B/OF - SEA
Admittedly I spent most of Raley’s early Mariners days being a hater. He had that wildly streaky 2023 in Tampa where
everyone else on that roster played out of their minds for a couple of months. But as it turns out, I was mistaken. There aren’t many guys you’ll find past pick 300 that have the potential to put up a 20/15 season. He’s not going to blow you away with runs or RBI, but he’s good enough everywhere else to have value.
What he lacks in contact ability, he makes up with a good pulled fly ball rate (9.6% / 60th percentile) and 90th EV (106.6 MPH / 86th percentile). Those combined with the fact the Mariners are set to make him an everyday player between the outfield, first base, and DH, and you get one of the most versatile late round hitting targets you’ll find.
Heston Kjerstad - OF/DH - BAL
Despite all of the hype last season, Kjerstad was not much more than the odd man out when he finally got the call to the majors. Now, coming into spring training, Baltimore’s GM said Kjerstad is a front runner to break camp on the big league roster and that he’s “earned the right to get a lot of af bats in the corner outfield and at DH”. This is big news for a guy who displayed some of the best raw power in the minors last season. Especially one who hits both right handed and left handed pitching well.
2024 vs Left: .273/.348/.416
2024 vs Right: .292/.398/.561
The one thing you hope to see from Kjerstad is the ability to pull the ball more. He’s at his best when he pulls fly balls, like most power hitters are. In the small spring sample size he’s pulling the ball just shy of 40% of the time which would be his highest mark in the majors. If that trend continues and he finds his way into 500 at bats, you get the potential for a 20-25 home run outcome for the Orioles young slugger.
Max Kepler - OF/DH - PHI
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before…this is the year Max Kepler returns to his 2019 form! I swear me and many other analysts have been saying that since 2022. And while he hasn’t necessarily had the massive return to glory we’d all hoped, he’s been productive and a new home this season may help take him to that next level.
Philadelphia and Minnesota are the 7th and 8th best ballparks for left handed hitters according to Statcast Ballpark Factors. One major thing that sets them apart is the home run factor, though. While Kepler’s old home in Minnesota is great (104 home run factor), Philadelphia is the second best for lefties at a whopping 127. His 105 MPH 90th EV, 10% pulled flyball rate, and clear path to potentially 500 at bats puts Kepler in position for a 20+ home run season while also giving quality contributions in runs, RBI, and batting average.
Joey Ortiz - 2B/3B - MIL
One of the best abilities any player on your roster can have is availability. And nothing says “available” like someone being an everyday starter. Something that someone like Joey Ortiz has the ability to say. Not only is he available, his ability to produce at the plate makes him an exciting choice as well. Keep in mind, exciting is a relative term for a guy being picked after 300.
The prized return in the trade of Corbin Burnes has shown he’s got a little power and speed in ‘em. He finished off last season going 11/11 with a .726 OPS. That’s after cooling off in the second season. In his first 74 games of the season his 22 XBH and .801 OPS gave a glimpse into what he can be. He’s projected to start everyday for the Brew Crew and his .285 batting average with men on base show he has potential to be a sneaky source of RBI as well. He’s not going to blow you away, but OOPSY projects him as a 14/13 guy with 139 R+RBI which are numbers you should be more than happy with that deep in a draft.
