Pinpointing Power: 3 Potential Breakout Power Hitters

Using analytics to figure out which under-the-radar players are the most likely to see a jump in their home run numbers this season

Apr 25, 2025

So recently, I’ve been trying different formulas for predicting breakouts or sustained production from both hitters and pitchers. Last week I covered my four pitchers I liked using SIERA, K-BB%, LOB%, and hard hit rate against as indicators for consistent success moving forward. This article is going to be, in theory, a version of that for hitters. The main difference is I’m using far fewer analytics for the basis of my article, but the end result will be the same.

These are the players you need to be keeping an eye on when looking for big potential power in 2025.

To make it a more streamlined article, these are the data points I’m using as of Tuesday, April 22nd:

Pulled Airball Rate (MLB Average: 16.6%)
90th EV (MLB Average: 105.1 MPH)
Squared Up% On Contact (MLB Average: 32.9%)

As simple as it seems, there actually aren’t many players excelling in all three of these outside of the already well-known power hitters. You don’t need me to tell you that guys like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani rank highly in all three categories. It’s the guys excelling in these whose home run numbers have yet to catch up that we want to focus on.

For reference, I’m using these specific data points for a reason. Firstly, pulled airballs

have the highest rate of BBE/HR in baseball. This season, 16% of pulled airballs (flyball/line drive/pop up) have resulted in home runs. A higher rate of pulled airballs is a great indicator for future home run numbers.

90th EV is also a great indicator of home run potential. 90th EV takes every one of a player’s batted ball events, then breaks it down to just the batted ball events in the 90th percentile for that specific player, and gives an average MPH for all the batted ball events in that 90th percentile. Solely looking at a player’s average exit velocity can be deceiving. They could have a 91 MPH average exit velocity, which would be above league average, but also have a 100 MPH 90th EV, which would be below league average. Ultimately, a higher 90th EV means a player is more likely to see an increase in power numbers in the future.

And then we have squared up on contact%. This takes into account every batted ball event a player has and the rate at which they square the ball during those batted ball events. The squared-up rate on contact is any batted ball event that’s at least 80% squared up. Squared up being a batted ball event resulting in an exit velocity of at least 80% of the maximum exit velocity for that particular event. Essentially, this is an overly explained way to say I’m pinpointing guys who consistently square up the ball on contact.

Combine these three things, and you have the perfect ingredients for a power hitter just waiting to break out. It may not mean they hit 40 home runs, but it can be the difference in a guy hitting just a handful of home runs and 15-20. A considerable enough difference to win plenty of fantasy baseball matchups.

Let’s get into the list.

Andy Ibanez - 2B/3B - Detroit Tigers

Pulled Airball Rate - 28.1%
90th EV - 104.7 MPH
Squared Up On Contact Rate - 38.6%

Part of this is me wanting an excuse to write about Andy Ibanez, but part of it is also the fact that not only is he the most unlucky hitter in baseball, he may be the most poised to break out. Small sample size, of course, but Ibanez’s new batted ball profile is starting to look reminiscent of Isaac Paredes. I’m not expecting Ibanez to somehow find his way into 30+ home runs, but there is a real shot he bests his former career high (11) and blows last year’s five out of the water.

Now, when I say Ibanez has been one of, if not the most unlucky, hitter in baseball this season, it’s for good reason. There’s a 36-point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA, and his .133 BABIP is laughable. He’s managed those disappointing numbers despite seeing the best contact numbers of his career (94.2% zone contact, 86.7% contact overall), lowest strikeout rate (7.7%), and lowest swinging strike rate (7%). All of this has culminated in a .171/.256/.371 slash line thus far. With his uptick in raw power and pulled airballs, this consistent contact should have no problem turning into home runs.

The biggest thing Ibanez has going against him is his platoon player status, but if he can continue to find everyday at-bats in that Detroit lineup, he’s going to surprise a lot of people. As a baseball fan, be patient. Too many of the analytics line up for him to continue to struggle this badly for too long. As a fantasy baseball manager, Ibanez should be considered a very deep league sleeper with 15+ home run potential.

Similar profile: Kyle Tucker (Pulled Airball: 30.1% | 90th EV: 104.4 MPH | Squared Up On Contact: 36.9%)

Enmanuel Valdez - 1B/2B - Pittsburgh Pirates

Pulled Airball Rate - 32.4%
90th EV - 104.6 MPH
Squared Up On Contact: 38.5%

Enmanuel Valdez may very well be one of the most under-the-radar power potentials in all of baseball. There are very few things you can look at in his profile this season that would make you say, “I don’t know, man, I’m just not really sure he’s got it”. And as far as our power indicators go, he’s damn near at the top of the list in a few. Mainly that impressive pulled airball rate. His 32.4% puts him 11th in baseball, just behind sluggers like Cal Raleigh and Spencer Torkelson.

The only real hangup I can see in Valdez’s game is that while his pulled airball rate is extremely high, his pulled flyball rate is just around 5%. That’s a number you’d like to see hover closer to 10% to see those home run numbers pop. Luckily for Valdez, that seems to be a problem that should be fixed soon. If you compare that 5% to years past, Valdez carried a pulled flyball rate of 17.6% in 2024 and 8.9% in 2023. So when that flyball rate gets more in line with where he typically is in his career, that home run bump should follow soon after.

As far as sustained success goes, I think Valdez is having the type of season that we’ll check in on at the all-star break and say, “Oh wow, he really had a good first half of the season. I had no idea”. Much like Ibanez, he’s seen a significant drop in strikeout rate (18.3% in 2025, 23.8% in 2024), but unlike Ibanez, he's seen a large jump in walk rate as well (15% in 2025, 7.6% in 2024). There is a fair chance that a lot of his success in 2025 can be attributed to his updated swing.

(2024)

(2025)

As you can see, he’s now standing two inches closer to the plate and has SIGNIFICANTLY closed his stance. From 17 degrees open in 2024 to just four degrees in 2025. Because of this, he's been able to make much more consistent contact while also getting that same oomph behind the ball he had in years past. He’s been getting everyday at-bats in that Pirates lineup, and that doesn’t seem likely to change anytime soon. He has just one home run so far this season, but he’s poised to start hitting them in bunches any day now. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Jeremy Pena - SS - Houston Astros

Pulled Airball Rate - 22.9%
90th EV - 105.6 MPH
Squared Up On Contract: 36.1%

As a Mariners fan, there’s always going to be a part of me that dislikes all Astros players. While doing my research, though, Pena is a name I just kept coming back to. It kept calling me from the computer screen like a best friend waiting to be picked by you in a game of dodgeball. So, on the list he goes.

It’s for good reason, though. Not only does he rank well in all three indicator stats, they’re also all considerably above his previous career highs. Let’s take his pulled airball rate. His previous career high was the 19.1% he put up in his rookie season. During that same rookie season, he also put up a 90th EV of 105.3 MPH. All of that resulted in a career-best 22 home runs. A number he hasn’t even come close to in his two seasons since.

As a right-handed hitter in Houston, he gets that added benefit of the Crawford Boxes in left field. Something that turns pull hitters like Jose Altuve into superstars. It’s just a matter of how often he can actually get the ball in the air down the line, and this season he seems to have cracked the code. I wish he swung more (only 49% swing rate), but when he does, he’s doing a great job of making quality contact. If you look a bit deeper, you’ll see that Pena has a 22.7% blast rate on contact, too. That number is 20th in all of baseball. That’s by far the highest number of Pena’s career.

He currently has just three home runs on the season. A number that may be right in line with what you expected coming into the season, but it’s also a number well below where the numbers indicate that he should be. Look for Pena to flirt with 25 home runs by season’s end at this rate.

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