Fantasy Baseball’s Points League Paradise: A New Beginning
Your home for the best weekly points league content on the net!
Welcome to what I like to call the “Points League Paradise”. It’s meant to be a little oasis of weekly information created strictly for points league players by someone who’s been playing in points leagues for over a decade. Last season I was lucky enough to create and debut this for Pitcher List. Now, this season, it has both a new home and new look.
Last season, the main focus of the article was to highlight guys to buy and sell in points leagues. Useful information, but very limited. This time around it’s going to be a multi-faceted article. I’ll deep dive the points league waiver wire, highlight over achievers, still point out my favorite trade targets, cover guys for multiple platforms and scoring types, as well as highlight guys with the best upcoming matchups. Essentially a one stop shop for all your points league needs.
While we aren’t in season yet, which is when a lot of that stuff becomes more relevant, I’m starting the article now and filling it with offseason info. It’s never too early to start talking points leagues, and there’s never a wrong time to continue talking about them. If you missed any of the points league content I put out previously, find it all right here:
Now as far as this first article in the series goes, I want to use this as an opportunity to cover a bunch of points league related content I haven’t been able to get to yet. This will become the one-stop-shop for all things points league related moving forward.
Let’s get after it.
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Guys with “Top 10 at the position” upside”
Every year, one of the best ways to maximize draft value is to find guys being drafted outside of the top 10 at a given position that can end up in the top 10 by seasons end. Sometimes those guys are easy to spot, sometimes they aren’t. Let’s key in on one guy at each position who seems primed to make a top 10 finish.
Catcher - Ivan Herrera
I’ve covered Herrera a few times but it’s tough to see another guy going outside the top 10 catchers with as much upside as Herrera. He should be an everyday bat in that Cardinals lineup, and he has both the contact and power to make it happen. He won’t hit you 20 home runs, but he’s a doubles hitter who’s OBP should push .350+ with double digit home runs. If you want to wait on a catcher, he’s the one worth waiting for.
First Base - Paul Goldschmidt
Father Time may be undefeated but he hasn’t gotten to Goldy, yet. Even without Soto, the Yankees are going to score a ton of runs, and Goldschmidt will be a big part of that. He still has elite power (105.5 MPH 90th EV), and pulls a good amount of flyballs (8.7%), and should easily see 150+ R+RBI. Should he find his way to 30 home runs he puts himself in that top 10 at the position number.
Second Base - Brandon Lowe
So the top 10 bar is probably the lowest at second base, let’s get that out of the way first. Second, I can count on one hand the amount of second baseman who have the same extra base hitting ability as a healthy Brandon Lowe. Now add in the fact he’s playing in a much more hitter friendly stadium and you have a recipe for a monster season from Lowe. Especially in a points league.
Third Base - Alec Bohm
Bohm checks a lot of boxes in points leagues…
Lots of XBH ✅
Batting average ✅
OBP ✅
RBI ✅
Low K% ✅
But the one thing he struggles with is consistency. Last season he had a March/April for the ages and proceeded to be nothing more than average for the rest of the season. Should he find a way to string two or three good months together he becomes a .280 hitter with the ability to go for 70 XBH. Easy top 10 at that point.
Shortstop - Trevor Story
Every bit of this depends on Story’s ability to stay healthy. And in recent years that’s been damn near impossible. But when he has been healthy he’s been productive. In his last 601 plate appearances (about a full seasons worth of at bats) he’s hitting just .234 but has 34 doubles, 21 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and drove in 85. Boston doesn’t have any bat speed data from spring training to help me gauge where the swing is at right now, but his 93 MPH average exit velocity thus far is certainly a positive sign. IF he stays healthy, Story ends up being the steal of most drafts.
Outfield - Riley Greene
I went a little farther outside of the box for outfield because I don’t think anyone gains something from me saying “Jackson Merrill is going outside the top 10 but has the upside!” So I tried going outside the top 30 and Greene stands out amongst the rest. In his first 96 games last season he had 43 XBH, four stolen bases, and had an .866 OPS. Over a full season those are ELITE numbers in a points league. A hamstring strain in July messed up the rest of his season, but if he can recapture that first half magic last season Riley Greene potentially becomes Kyle Tucker without the stolen bases.
Starting Pitcher - Cristopher Sanchez
This is the biggest long shot on the list but after seeing what he put together I’m fully bought in right now. His velo is way up this spring, he’s missing bats at an incredible rate, and the contact that is being made is very ground ball heavy. He had a great 2024 season, the only thing missing was his ability to get strikeouts. Through 11.2 innings this spring he has a K% of 37% and a K-BB% of 32.6%. Both numbers that would put him amongst the elite should they carry over to the regular season. Many spring training numbers aren’t worth paying attention to, but these are. I’m buying the hype of potential first round output from Sanchez.
(Shoutout
and his incredible work for the graphic)Late Round Guys I’m Not Drafting But Keeping An Eye On
These are guys going after pick 250 that I don’t want to use draft picks on, but I’m keeping an eye on them early season to see how they pan out. There are plenty of guys I’m not completely sold on quite yet that I need to see some kind of sign of life in the early goings. If I do, they become an easy add. If not, they cost me nothing and I can move on.
Nolan Jones - Colorado
I’m still living off the hype of that magical 106 game run he had in 2023. 46 XBH, 20 stolen bases, a few too many strikeouts, but an average that more than made up for it. I refuse to believe that kid isn’t still in there somewhere. He’s hitting .227 this Spring, so he’s not doing much to help my worries at all, but someone who’s put those numbers up already and plays in Coors is tantalizing at the least. There’s more risk to adding him in points than roto, therefore I’m passing for now. If he starts the season hot, I’m finding a way to get him on my team.
Roman Anthony - Boston
I’m not as high on the rookies as most. That’s partly why he’s here. I’m also slightly worried about the fact he just recently got sick and lost 10 lbs. His upside comes from his crazy power (99th percentile 90th EV in Triple-A last season) and speed. I think he CAN be an elite player, but rookies tend to struggle early. Especially ones who experience sudden weight loss right before the season. In shallower leagues he may go undrafted. In slightly deeper leagues he’s getting drafted but will be worth trading for should he make the opening day roster and put up immediate production.
Caleb Durbin - Milwaukee
Do I want to draft him right now? No. Unless I’m in a super deep draft. But does he have the track record of being a points league stud? Absolutely. In 90 minor league games in 2024 he slashed .275/.388/.451 and stole 31 bases. He’s growing into his power and has the ability to hit 15 or so dingers while striking out less than 10% of the time. He’s as close to an infield Steven Kwan with a little more speed as you can get without him actually being Steven Kwan. I need to see him be on the opening day roster and get meaningful at bats. If he does that, he may very well move to the top of my wants list.
Hayden Birdsong - San Francisco
As far as pure “stuff” is concerned, Birdsong has everything you’re looking for.
(shoutout
once again)A 96 MPH fastball with a 17.2” IVB, secondaries that routinely miss bats, great strikeout numbers throughout spring training…the issue for Birdsong has always been walks. In 16 starts last season he had a 27.8% strikeout rate and a not so great 13.7% walk rate. Now this spring he has yet to walk a single batter. Many spring training numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but his improved command is one worth keeping an eye on. I don’t think he breaks camp in the big leagues, but when he gets the call (as long as the BB% has improved) he’s going to be added to every team of mine I’m able.
Matchups To Target Week 1
Tampa Bay Rays: vs COL (3)
It can be tough to tell you to target a matchup in which the team plays one less game than most other teams, but in this case it feels necessary. Tampa Bay takes on a Rockies pitching staff that ended 2024 last in road ERA (5.51), LOB% (67.1%), batting average against (.278), and Stuff+ (92). They also gave up the most hard contact in baseball at 35.8%. With Tampa Bay now playing in the seemingly much more hitter friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025, their hitters are likely going to have a field day. If they start in that Rays lineup, they’re worth getting a shot to start in yours too.
Toronto Blue Jays: vs BAL (4)
Four games is a plus. The one thing that makes it even better is being four games against an Orioles pitching staff without Corbin Burnes or Grayson Rodriguez. The talent level after those two takes quite the dip and the Blue Jays are a tough out as it is. Fully expecting to come out of this series talking about “Is Bo Bichette finally back?”, does Andres Gimenez have .270 and 100 runs scored upside? And just how far up the fantasy leaderboards will Anthony Santander climb by seasons end? It might seem a bit overzealous, but this offense should run like a well-oiled machine and they’re going to tee off on the Orioles less than stellar pitching.
