Fantasy Baseball’s Good Buy Or Sell High
Examining three hitters and figuring out whether they’re worth buying in on or selling while they’re hot
In the world of baseball, it’s important to understand what kind of success a player is experiencing. Especially when dealing with these early-season small sample sizes. One week-long hot streak can have a player looking like the second coming of Aaron Judge *cough* Kyren Paris *cough*.
Everyone loves a good buy-low article, but it’s equally important to know how to identify the guys able to sustain long-term success. These become the guys best suited to use waiver wire additions, FAAB, or trade assets on. They’re also the guys you should prioritize keeping, should they be on your roster currently.
Success can be defined in multiple ways. For the sake of this article, I’m going to be looking at the guys performing above what I think we were all expecting. These also just so happen to be the guys I get asked about the most. So instead of answering over and over, I figured why not do a real breakdown in an article and explain them in my favorite way imaginable.
(Friendly reminder that paid subscribers get all articles two days early! To get early access and get a leg up on the competition, consider becoming a paid subscriber for just $5/month!)
Andy Pages - Los Angeles Dodgers
There may not be a hotter outfielder in baseball right now than Andy Pages. From April 8th through April 30th, he hit .387 with an OPS of 1.159 and a strikeout rate under 18%. Keep in mind, this is something he did last year as well,l before he cooled off drastically and never really regained that hot streak. We may be seeing the makings of that all over again in 2025.
Now, yes, Pages was one of the outfielders listed in my waiver wire article this week. The reasoning behind adding him right now was simply to capitalize on the current hot streak. As far as whether he can continue this long term…I think we’re seeing shades of the 2024 Pages that cooled off. Despite that April hot streak, there is little in Pages’ batted ball profile that suggests long-term success.
His swing speed, as well as squared up on contact and blast rates, are all down year over year. His quality of contact metrics have all taken a nose dive, and despite his good-looking batting average and SLG, his xSLG and xwOBA suggest he’s in line for that same regression he saw last season. To take it a step further, both his 90th percentile EV (101.3 MPH) and SEAGER (8.4) are down considerably as well. The fact that he’s managed to already string together 10 XBH is actually kind of astonishing.
Conclusion: Sell High
The Dodgers’ lineup is chock-full of top-tier talent just waiting for their chance at more playing time. If Pages truly does cool off like he did in 2024, it’s only a matter of time before his playing time starts to dip and his value drops. This week he’s set to start the week against Miami and end it against Arizona. Both lineups, he should be able to take advantage of. Enjoy the boost he’ll likely give your team this week and then work on selling high on him before the start of next week.
Lars Nootbaar - St. Louis Cardinals
Every year, Lars Nootbaar ends up being one of my favorite players to watch and one of my least favorite players to roster in fantasy baseball. Not because he’s not good enough, far from it actually. It’s because he falls into the category of players seemingly made of glass. He can never really make it through a season without some kind of injury forcing him to miss significant time. I’m writing about him right now with that in the back of my mind, but also with major optimism.
There isn’t a contact metric of Nootbaar’s that I don’t love. He’s swinging a full two MPH harder (74.5 MPH), has a blast rate on contact almost 10% above league average (22.3%), has the best overall contact rate of his career (84.8%), and his Statcast page is lit up red.
One of the things Nootbaar has always excelled at is his walk rate. This is the first season of his career he’s actually walking more than he’s striking out. This improved plate discipline, combined with his increase in contact quality, means he should be in for a big season. Especially when you also take into account his pulled airball rate (16.8%) is the highest of his career outside the 2022 season, when he put up 33 XBH in just 108 games.
Conclusion: Good Buy
Obviously you need a bit of luck on your side in hopes that Nootbaar can stay healthy and at least hit 500 ABs this season. If he does, though, the numbers he puts up will far outweigh the injury risk. The Cardinals have a lineup putting up runs in bunches this season, and Nootbaar is their guy for the leadoff spot. Don’t pay a King’s ransom for him, but whatever the asking price for him is should be paid right now (within reason).
Maikel Garcia - Kansas City Royals
One of the weirdest batted ball profiles in baseball every year is proudly owned by Maikel Garcia. The small-framed second and third baseman has one of the best zone contact rates in baseball, while also having some of the best raw power numbers in baseball as well. The result? A career high SEVEN home runs in 2024. You heard me right. Seven. That seems to be changing for the better so far in 2025 (spoiler alert for my conclusion at the end).
Despite all the raw power numbers, Garcia could never seem to fix his nagging launch angle issues. His launch angles in each of the last two seasons were both comically low.
2023 - 6.1 degrees
2024 - 6.4 degrees
It certainly helped him keep a good line drive rate (something that’s typically great for BABIP and BA), but it also meant he was carrying groundball rates just shy of 50%. It doesn’t matter how hard you hit the ball; if you’re a consistent groundball hitter, you’re never going to hit a big enough chunk of home runs to matter. Even during his four home run, 10 XBH March/April he had in 2024, his launch angle was only at 8.4 degrees with a groundball rate of 48%. This season, though, that’s changed. With an average launch angle of 10 degrees, Garcia has lowered his groundball rate by 10% (39.4%) and seen a rise in both his home runs (4), slugging percentage (.496!), and xwOBA (.380). He’s done many of the things we wanted to see change, statistically speaking, and it’s paying off in a major way.
Conclusion: Good Buy
When you have a player that was one generalized outcome away from unlocking their fantasy baseball value, and they finally do it, it’s worth it to buy in. Aside from the launch angle change, he’s also upped his 90th percentile EV by almost a full two MPH as well. It now sits at 106.5 MPH (77th percentile), and combined with his elite speed, he already possesses, we may see Garcia not only break double-digit home runs, but he has a chance to flirt with 17-20 IF everything continues to go the way it’s going right now. Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy.
